The monsoon, which is running ahead of time over parts of Central India and catching up fast over the East, may advance over the entire country (outside South Rajasthan and Kutch region of Gujarat) during the next 5-6 days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
For instance, June 30 is the date of onset over Delhi, but the punishing schedule the monsoon has set for itself may help it run over the national capital much earlier. This is expected to be facilitated by the interaction of the monsoon easterlies with incoming western disturbances.
Low-pressure area over Bay
On Friday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Diu, Surat, Nandurbar, Raisen, Damoh, Umaria, Pendra Road, Bolangir, Canning, Krishnanagar and Malda, helped in by the formation of a low-pressure area over the North-West Bay of Bengal as predicted earlier by the IMD.
The monsoon entered some more parts of South Gujarat, South Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and more parts of West Bengal to the accompaniment of heavy to very rainfall, the IMD said.
Conditions are favourable for further advancing into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha, entire West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, and some parts of East Uttar Pradesh mostly earlier than normal remaining during the next two days.
Slow ‘low’ to hep scale-up rain
The slow-moving ‘low’ has drifted coastward and lay half over land and sea over North-West Bay waters and adjoining Odisha-Bengal coast. It is expected to become ‘more marked’ and move to West-North-West across Odisha, Jharkhand and North Chhattisgarh during the next 3-4 days.
It will slide smoothly into a waiting atmospheric highway in the form of an East-West trough that links it with South Punjab and moves further inland along, raining down heavily. It will act in a give-and-take fashion with a circulation over the Arabian Sea, ensuring each other’s play and sustenance.
The IMD expects this trough to persist during the next 4-5 days. Combining with an offshore trough, it will allow strong south-westerly winds to prevail along the West Coast for the next 5-6 days. This would ultimately drive the monsoon to a peak and help it beat timelines in spatial coverage.
Heavy to very heavy rain
On Friday, the ‘low’ poured down its contents in heavy rain over Telangana and heavy rain at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Marathwada, Konkan and Goa.
An extended outlook for June 16-18 said that widespread rain is likely over most parts of the country except Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, where it will be isolated to scattered.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast for Central, East and North-East India, and the West Coast. A fresh ‘low’ forming next week over the Head Bay and adjoining West Bengal coast may take over the mantle and pull back the monsoon trough to the foothills of the Himalayas.